- EUR/USD depreciates to around 1.0780 in Friday’s Asian session, down 0.20% on the day.
- Future Fed policy decisions are still data-dependent after a 25 bps rate cut on Thursday.
- Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs and rising bets on ECB rate cuts exert some selling pressure on the Euro.
The EUR/USD pair plunges to near 1.0780 amid the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand on Friday during the Asian trading hours. Also, Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Greenback. Traders await the advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for November for fresh impetus, along with the speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman on Friday.
As widely expected, the US Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its November meeting on Thursday. The US central bank does not want to see any further weakening of the labor market and continues to expect that inflation will sustainably decline to the Fed's 2% target. Therefore, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates further at the next few meetings, but the timing remains uncertain as the Fed will continue assessing data to determine the "pace and destination" of interest rates.
Trump has vowed a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, exerting some selling pressure on the Euro as the European Union has the second-largest trade deficit with the United States globally and is the largest exporter to the US, per JPMorgan.
Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen cutting rates at a faster pace than the Fed. This, in turn, could drag the shared currency lower against the Greenback. The ECB has already reduced rates three times this year as inflation risks in the Eurozone ease faster than expected. The rising expectation of another rate reduction continues to undermine the EUR in the near term.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD falls toward 1.0500 amid risk-off mood
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling pressure, easing toward 1.0500 in the European session on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from risk-off flows due to rising geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and worries over the potential US tariffs on the EU. ECB- and Fedspeak are awaited.
GBP/USD stays pressured toward 1.2600 ahead of US data, Fedspeak
GBP/USD remains pressured toward 1.2600 in European trading on Thursday. The pair's underperformance could be attributed to a risk-aversion market environment. Traders stay cautious amid rife geopolitical tensions ahead of mid-tier US data and Fedspeak.
Gold price extends gains beyond $2,650 amid rising geopolitical risks
Gold price extends its bullish momentum further above $2,650 in Thursday's European session. Gold price risies for the fourth straight day, sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war. US data and Fedspeak are next in focus.
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era
The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.