- EUR/USD edges lower on Monday as the upbeat US NFP continues to underpin the USD.
- A positive risk tone might cap the safe-haven buck and lend some support to the major.
- Traders now look to the US CPI, FOMC minutes and the ECB meeting for a fresh impetus.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's goodish rebound of around 50 pips from sub-1.0800 levels and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0825-1.0820 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics, though the downside seems cushioned.
The upbeat US monthly employment data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – showed that the economy added 303K jobs in March, more than the 200K anticipated. This forced investors to scale back their bets for an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June and the total number of rate cuts to two in 2024. The outlook keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD and exerting some pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
That said, a generally positive tone around the global equity markets, bolstered by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, might keep a lid on the safe-haven Greenback. Traders might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key releases from the US – the latest consumer inflation figures and the crucial FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, should provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
In the meantime, rising bets for a June rate cut by the ECB, reaffirmed by softer Eurozone consumer inflation figures last week, might continue to weigh on the Euro and keep the EUR/USD bulls on the defensive. Hence, any recovery back towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near the 1.0870 region, could be seen as a selling opportunity. Traders now look to German Industrial Production and Trade Balance data, along with the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, for some impetus.
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