EUR/USD closed at 1.1417 on Friday, marking the third straight monthly rise as investors baked-in the possibility of an early ECB taper and interest rate hike.
Technical bullish reversal
The spot has formed a nice falling tops formation from 1.6038 (July 2008 high). The ‘Three White Soldiers pattern at the bottom of 9-year long downtrend on the monthly chart indicates a strong trend reversal. However, it doesn’t mean that the spot is on a one way trip to key psychological figure of 1.20.
This is because the major part of the rally has been based on expectations that the ECB QE taper and a rate hike would happen sooner-than-expected.
Eonia curve steepening may be overdone
Draghi’s hawkish talk last week led to a marked steepening in Eonia forwards. The 12-month forwards currently hovers around -10 bp, which means the investors expect a 25 bps rate hike in one-year’s time.
The steepening may be overdone as ECB’s (potential) QE taper this year could weigh over inflation and force the ECB to delay the rate hike beyond Q3, 2018.
Focus on US data
The USD may strengthen if the US ISM manufacturing numbers beat estimates and shows a sharp rise in the employment. Moreover, it could lead to a steepening of the treasury yield curve and yield a technical pullback in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The spot traded around 1.1410 in Asia. A break above 1.1428 (June 2016 high) would expose 1.1465 (Apr 2016 high) and 1.15 (zero levels). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 1.1396 (5-DMA) would open up downside towards 1.1369 (1-hour 100-MA) and 1.1296 (June 14 high).
On the 1-hour chart, we see a head and shoulders pattern with neckline support at 1.1395. On the 4-hour chart, we see bearish price-RSI divergence.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains near 1.0300 after US PMI data
EUR/USD trades in positive territory at around 1.0300 on Friday. The pair breathes a sigh of relief as the US Dollar rally stalls, even as markets stay cautious amid geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff plans. US ISM PMI improved to 49.3 in December, beating expectations.
GBP/USD holds around 1.2400 as the mood improves
GBP/USD preserves its recovery momentum and trades around 1.2400 in the American session on Friday. A broad pullback in the US Dollar allows the pair to find some respite after losing over 1% on Thursday. A better mood limits US Dollar gains.
Gold retreats below $2,650 in quiet end to the week
Gold shed some ground on Friday after rising more than 1% on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield trimmed pre-opening losses and stands at around 4.57%, undermining demand for the bright metal. Market players await next week's first-tier data.
Stellar bulls aim for double-digit rally ahead
Stellar extends its gains, trading above $0.45 on Friday after rallying more than 32% this week. On-chain data indicates further rally as XLM’s Open Interest and Total Value Locked rise. Additionally, the technical outlook suggests a rally continuation projection of further 40% gains.
Week ahead – US NFP to test the markets, Eurozone CPI data also in focus
King Dollar flexes its muscles ahead of Friday’s NFP. Eurozone flash CPI numbers awaited as euro bleeds. Canada’s jobs data to impact bets of a January BoC cut. Australia’s CPI and Japan’s wages also on tap.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.