• Mixed PMI data from the US tempers some optimism, with the market now eyeing ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI release in August.
  • Eurozone PMI data points to a deepening recession, exacerbated by downward inflation trends and shifting stances amongst ECB’s hawkish members.
  • Deteriorating German business confidence adds to the bearish outlook for the Euro, compounding economic struggles in the bloc’s largest economy.

The EUR/USD slides for the fifth straight session as recessionary Eurozone (EU) fears arose. Simultaneously, traders prepare for the release of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1051 after hitting a daily high of 1.1086.

Economic indicators and central bank meetings on both sides of the Atlantic poised to shape the currency pair’s movements

Wall Street continues to drive market mood, with earnings of mega-tech companies, like Microsoft and Google underpinning US bourses. Economic data from the United States (US) showed that consumer confidence is rising, despite foreseeing an upcoming recession in the US, as revealed by the Conference Board (CB) poll. That and house prices boosted the US Dollar (USD) early in the North American session, as the EUR/USD dived to a new weekly low of 1.1020.

The EUR/USD extended its fall on Monday after S&P Global PMIs in the US were mixed, as manufacturing activity improved, but services slumped. Nevertheless, the three-point rise in Manufacturing PMI, from 46.1 to 49, cushioned the Composite PMI reading to 52, from June’s 53.2. Even though figures painted an optimistic outlook in the US, traders would eye the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI release at the beginning of August.

Contrarily, the Eurozone (EU) is portraying a dismal scenario with manufacturing activity across France, Germany, and the whole EU missing estimates and plunging deeper into recessionary territory, igniting fears that a recession can hit the bloc. Last week’s inflation data pointing downwards, and a sudden change of stance amongst ECB’s most hawkish members in Klas Knot and Joachim Nagel, shifting to a data-dependant mode, could weaken the Euro (EUR) in the near term.

In the meantime, early in the Europe session, business confidence in Germany slipped further, a headwind for the EUR/USD. Analysts warned that Germany’s economy is struggling to recover from a recession, as the Ifo Business Climate stood at 87.3, below the 88.0 consensus.

Given the backdrop, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate increase, with traders eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues regarding the forward path of monetary policy. Across the pond, the ECB is also expected to lift rates by 25 bps on Thursday, but odds for September continued to diminish as the EU’s economy decelerates.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD is neutrally biased, though it halted its ongoing downtrend at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1058. A daily close below the latter will expose key support levels, like the 1.1000 figure, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.0966. Conversely, if EUR/USD buyers stepped in at that level, the major could edge toward the 1.1100 mark, followed by the test of the 1.1200 mark.

EUR/USD Daily chart

EUR/USD Daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.1053
Today Daily Change -0.0012
Today Daily Change % -0.11
Today daily open 1.1065
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1037
Daily SMA50 1.0898
Daily SMA100 1.0886
Daily SMA200 1.0695
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1147
Previous Daily Low 1.106
Previous Weekly High 1.1276
Previous Weekly Low 1.1108
Previous Monthly High 1.1012
Previous Monthly Low 1.0662
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1093
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1114
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1034
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1004
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0948
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1121
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1178
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1208

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Pound Sterling edges higher after BoE rate cut, focus shifts to Governor Bailey – LIVE

Pound Sterling edges higher after BoE rate cut, focus shifts to Governor Bailey – LIVE

The Bank of England (BoE) lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% following the November meeting, as expected, and said that the budget is forecast to boost inflation. BoE Governor Bailey will speak on the policy outlook in a press conference next.

FOLLOW US LIVE
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 amid US Dollar pullback

EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 amid US Dollar pullback

EUR/USD holds higher ground and trades above 1.0750 on Thursday. The pair finds support from a broad US Dollar retreat, as traders unwind their Trump win-inspired USD longs ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated policy announcements.

EUR/USD News
Gold recovers above $2,660, awaits Fed rate decision

Gold recovers above $2,660, awaits Fed rate decision

Gold recovers slightly following Wednesday's sharp decline and trades above $2,660. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield struggles to push higher after Trump-inspired upsurge, allowing XAU/USD to hold its ground ahead of the Fed policy decisions.

Gold News
Federal Reserve expected to deliver 25 bps interest-rate cut, shrugging off Trump victory

Federal Reserve expected to deliver 25 bps interest-rate cut, shrugging off Trump victory

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the policy rate after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks could provide important clues about the rate outlook.

Read more
Outlook for the markets under Trump 2.0

Outlook for the markets under Trump 2.0

On November 5, the United States held presidential elections. Republican and former president Donald Trump won the elections surprisingly clearly. The Electoral College, which in fact elects the president, will meet on December 17, while the inauguration is scheduled for January 20, 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures