EUR/USD slumps as weak Eurozone PMI prompts ECB outsize rate cut bets

• EUR/USD falls sharply as the US Dollar extends its rally and the Eurozone Composite PMI surprisingly contracts.
• Eurozone Service PMI surprisingly decreased to 49.2, suggesting that business activity contracted in November for the first time since January.
• The US Dollar strengthens as traders doubt over Fed rate cuts in December.

EUR/USD recovers some of the intraday losses after posting a fresh almost two-year low near 1.0330 in North American trading hours on Friday. Still, the outlook of the major currency pair is vulnerable as the preliminary HCOB Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for November has shown that the overall business activity surprisingly contracted. The Eurozone Composite PMI declined to 48.1 while economists expected the economic data to manage to remain near the borderline at 50.0. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in economic activities

A major decline in the overall private business activity came from weakness in the Services PMI, which also contracted unexpectedly. The Services PMI, which gauges activity in the service sector, declined to 49.2 against estimates of 51.8 and the prior release of 51.6. The service sector output contracted for the first time since January.

The Manufacturing PMI continued to contract, with the index declining at a faster-than-expected pace to 45.2 against the estimates and the prior release of 46.0

A majority of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are already worried about weak growth and potential economic risks due to expectations of a trade war with the United States (US). On Thursday, ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned that a global trade war due to the likely implementation of President-elect Donald Trump’s higher tariffs would result in a “sizeable” loss in global economic output. "Trade fragmentation entails sizeable output losses,” Lane said.

Meanwhile, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus Christodoulos Patsalides said, "If trade restrictions materialize, the outcome may be inflationary, recessionary or worse, stagflationary," Reuters reported.

In Friday's North American session, ECB policymakers and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also warned that Trump's tariffs could hit growth of the Eurozone as well as the US in a speech at Frankfurt. "Implementing such tariffs would re-ignite international trade conflicts and further impair our multilateral order," Nagel said.

Traders see more than a 50% chance that the ECB will cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. The probability of an outsize rate cut was lower than 20% before the PMI data release.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD tumbles as US Dollar refreshes two-year high

• EUR/USD faces an intense sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) extends bullish momentum near a two-year high, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallying to near 108.00.
• The outlook of the US Dollar is upbeat on expectations that there will be fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its current policy-easing cycle than what market participants had anticipated earlier.
• Market participants expect that United States (US) inflation and economic growth will accelerate when President-elect Donald Trump takes office as his economic agenda includes lower taxes and raising import tariffs by 10% universally, except the Eurozone and China, which are expected to face even higher duties.
• Higher import tariffs and lower taxes will boost business investment, as well as the demand for labor and domestically produced goods and services. A scenario that will be inflationary and force the Fed to remain cautious on interest rate cuts.
• The impact of the hot inflation outlook is visible in market speculation for the Fed interest rate policy for the December meeting. Fed’s probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.50% range has eased to 56% from 70% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• Going forward, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity expanded at a faster pace due to an improvement in the output of manufacturing as well as the service sector.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD tests territory below 1.0350

EUR/USD extends downside and reaches a fresh two-year low to near 1.0330 on Friday. The major currency pair weakened further after sliding below the psychological support of 1.0500 the prior day. The pair could witness more downside as all short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, adding to evidence of more weakness in the near term.

Looking down, EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0332 on Friday. Should that level fail to hold, the pair could find a cushion near the round-level support of 1.0300. On the flip side, the psychological level of 1.0500 and the November 20 high round 1.0600 will be the key barriers for the Euro bulls.

(This story was corrected on November 22 at 09:55 GMT to add "falls sharply" at the first bullet point.)