EUR/USD set to challenge 1.07 as ECB looms ahead with rates on the table

The EUR/USD is down into the red for heading into Thursday’s market session, wrapping up Wednesday down around 1.0730 after opening the day above 1.0750 and tapping into 1.0711 for the trading day’s low.

It’s all about the European Central Bank (ECB) heading into Thursday after markets largely shrugged off the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat, which showed US inflation ticking upwards to 3.7% for the annualized period into August, beating market analyst estimates of 3.5% and a healthy step up from the previous month’s 3.2% showing.

ECB on the docket for Thursday, and it’s all about the rates

The ECB is slated for another rate call on Thursday, with the European Union’s (EU) preeminent bank largely forecast to hold on rates for the time being, but inflationary concerns remain a sticking point.

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The majority of market analysts anticipate the ECB to hold steady on rates, but the margin has dwindled rapidly in recent days after an internal leak from the ECB showed the bank is set to raise their inflation expectations looking forward.

A poor showing from the ECB here could see the Euro (EUR) extend its current backslide against the Greenback (USD).

While the projection increase itself is unlikely to be enough to push the ECB off their wait-and-see stance, it does highlight that inflation remains an ongoing issue for the broader European economy.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The EUR/USD is notably on the soft side, trading into the 1.0700 major handle on the daily candlesticks. Price action has steadily declined from late July’s peaks near 1.1240, and has closed red for the past eight consecutive weeks.

While the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages are still stacked bullish, with the 50-day SMA nearing 1.0925 and the 100-day SMA near 1.0900, both moving averages have turned bearish, descending into a rejection zone that has thus far held the EUR/USD on the back foot since late August’s failed bull run.

Look for any topside momentum to get capped by resistance points at lower highs, and a break below the 1.0700 handle could see bears find room to run.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD technical levels