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EUR/USD remains below 1.11 despite US curve inversion, slide in US-German yield spread

  • EUR/USD is flashing red for the third straight day despite the US yield curve inversion.
  • The narrowing of the US-German yield spread is being ignored by the market.
  • Below-Forecast German consumer confidence will likely hurt the EUR.

EUR/USD remains on the defensive below 1.11 ahead of the London open despite the US yield curve inversion and the slide in the US-German yield spread to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2018.

The US yield curve inversion deepened on Tuesday with the spread between the 10-year and the two-year yields falling to -5 basis points, the lowest level since 2007. Curve inversions have preceded US recessions in the past 50 years.

Further, the spread between the US and German 10-year bond yields fell to an 18-month low of 218 basis points.

Even so, the EUR/USD fell 0.10% on Tuesday and closed below 1.11. The price action indicates the market focus has shifted to the prospect of the aggressive European Central Bank (ECB) easing in September.

As a result, the common currency may suffer a deeper drop today. EUR/USD could revisit the Aug. 23 low of 1.1052 if the German Gfk Consumer Confidence (Sep) prints well below the consensus estimate of 9.36. The data is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT.

An above-forecast data may put a bid under the EUR. The technical outlook, however, would turn bullish only if the pair finds acceptance above the Aug. 6 high of 1.1250. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1088, representing marginal losses on the day. 

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price1.1088
Today Daily Change-0.0002
Today Daily Change %-0.02
Today daily open1.109
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.1133
Daily SMA501.1205
Daily SMA1001.1211
Daily SMA2001.1282
Levels
Previous Daily High1.1116
Previous Daily Low1.1086
Previous Weekly High1.1154
Previous Weekly Low1.1052
Previous Monthly High1.1373
Previous Monthly Low1.106
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.1097
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.1105
Daily Pivot Point S11.1078
Daily Pivot Point S21.1067
Daily Pivot Point S31.1048
Daily Pivot Point R11.1109
Daily Pivot Point R21.1128
Daily Pivot Point R31.114

Author

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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