- EUR/USD holds its position ahead of the releases of PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany.
- Eurozone Manufacturing Services PMIs are expected to tick upwards slightly in May.
- FOMC Minutes suggested a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed policy stance.
EUR/USD treads water to halt its three-day losing streak, hovering around 1.0820 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Euro's appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to a corrective move for the latter. Investors are likely to await Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and Germany, with subsequent attention turning to the US PMI later in the North American session on Thursday.
Projections suggest that Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in May is anticipated to rise to 46.2 from 45.7, while the Services PMI is expected to show a slight uptick to 53.5 from 53.3. Meanwhile, in the United States (US), both Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to remain unchanged at 50.0 and 51.3, respectively.
The Euro could face challenges ahead as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to consider reducing borrowing costs in its June meeting. This anticipation stems from the current inflation rate in the Euro Area, which stands at 2.4%, very close to the ECB's target of 2.0%. President Christine Lagarde recently indicated a high probability of such action in June if data continues to support the confidence that inflation will eventually align with the ECB's target in the medium term.
On Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened as the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting indicated hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance. Fed policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which has proven to be more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. As a result, the Fed is hesitant to proceed with interest rate cuts.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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