- EUR/USD picks up bids to pare post-ECB losses, up for snapping four-week downtrend.
- ECB fastened QE tapering, revised down growth forecasts but couldn’t save Euro amid USD’s safe-haven demand.
- Ukraine-Russia negotiations failed, mixed clues over Russian military in Kyiv tested sentiment of late.
- US data may entertain traders but risk catalysts are the key.
EUR/USD takes the bids to refresh intraday high near 1.1020, up 0.35% on a day, as the US dollar pares heavy gains during Friday’s lackluster Asian session. In doing so, the major currency pair is ready for the first positive weekly closing in the last five, despite failing to welcome the European Central Bank’s (ECB) slightly hawkish move the previous day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day, recently easy around 98.50, on the announcement from Turkey that the Russia-Ukraine talks failed to mark any progress. The negotiations were previously expected to offer positive headlines as Ukraine stepped back from NATO goals and showed readiness to compromise.
Also favoring the US Dollar was the 40-year high US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which in turn propels the odds of the Fed’s 0.50% rate hike in March.
At home, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced plans to quickly scale back the bond-buying program with an end in sight during Q3, followed by rate lifts. However, the regional central bank’s downgrade of growth forecasts and pumping up of the inflation fears might have played a role to weigh on the Euro.
Read: ECB Analysis: EUR/USD selling opportunity? Taper helps with inflation, full war shock still to come
Elsewhere, the Russian military’s position in Kyiv raised the latest confusion and could have helped the S&P 500 Futures to print mild gains. “Satellite images taken on Thursday show a large Russian military convoy, last seen northwest of Kyiv near Antonov airport, has largely dispersed and redeployed,” said the US Satellite Company Maxar per Reuters.
Moving on, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, expected 61.3 versus 62.8, will be important data to watch whereas headlines on the Russia-Ukraine crisis will be crucial to not miss.
Technical analysis
Despite bouncing off the multi-month low near 1.0800, EUR/USD bulls need validation from January’s low surrounding 1.1120 to signal further upside.
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