- EUR/USD trims losses and regains the 1.0980 region.
- The dollar gives away part of the initial strong advance.
- German 10y bund yields rose to 0.63%, or multi-year peaks.
Following an early drop to the proximity of 1.0940, EUR/USD regains some composure and now retargets the key barrier at 1.1000 on Monday.
EUR/USD: Next on the downside comes 1.0900
EUR/USD now alternates gains with losses in the sub-1.1000 region on the back of the unabated upside bias in the greenback.
Indeed, extra gains in the buck remain propped up by the march north in US yields along with markets’ expectations of tighter rate path by the Federal Reserve, while the absence of news from the Ukraine war appears to sustain a cautious note in the risk complex.
No data releases in the euro docket on Monday should leave all the attention to flash trade balance figures and the Dallas Fed manufacturing gauge due later in the NA session.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD comes under further downside pressure and revisits the 1.0950/40 band in response to the firmer demand for the greenback at the beginning of the week. Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency should appear reinforced by the speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB at some point by year end, while higher German yields, elevated inflation, the decent pace of the economic recovery and auspicious results from key fundamentals in the region are also supportive of a rebound in the euro.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – EMU Final Consumer Confidence, ECB Lagarde, Germany Flash Inflation Rate (Wednesday) – Germany Retail Sales, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, EMU Unemployment Rate (Thursday) – Final EMU, Germany Manufacturing PMI, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Presidential elections in France in April. Impact of the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, spot is retreating 0.10% at 1.0970 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1037 (high March 25) followed by 1.1137 (weekly high March 17) and finally 1.1211 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a drop below 1.0944 (weekly low March 28) would target 1.0900 (weekly low March 14) en route to 1.0805 (2022 low March 7).
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