EUR saw modest rebound amid USD pullback, and European PMIs surprised to the upside. Pair was last at 1.0825, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading
“EUR saw modest rebound amid USD pullback while prelim PMIs surprised slightly to the upside. In particular, German manufacturing, services PMIs surprised.”
“Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. We still call for rebound risks.”
“Resistance at 1.0830 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0870 (200 DMA), 1.0930/50 levels (21, 100 DMAs). Support 1.0780, 1.0740 (76.4% fibo).”
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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