EUR/USD probing daily highs near 1.1230 ahead of NFP

The pair moves higher early in Europe, tests 1.1230.
The greenback eases from highs and approaches 97.20.
German Industrial Production expanded 0.7% MoM in February.

The mood around the European currency remains choppy so far this week, with EUR/USD at least managing to stay above the 1.1200 handle in the last sessions.

EUR/USD looks to risk trends, data

Spot is so far reversing Thursday’s pullback amidst a broad-based sideline theme, always navigating the lower end of the weekly range and with gains capped in the 1.1250 region for the time being.

In the meantime, the pair has practically ignored auspicious developments from the US-China trade front, focusing instead in the performance of yields in Germany and the spread vs. their American counterparts.

In the data space, German Industrial Production unexpectedly expanded at a monthly 0.7% during February, coming in above expectations and reversing the previous 0.8% contraction. Later across the pond, Non-farm Payrolls for the month of March are expected to grab all the attention.

What to look for around EUR

Despite the current lack of direction in spot, EUR remains under pressure following poor results in Euroland as of late. In fact, recent disappointing readings in the region somehow confirm that the slowdown in the bloc and the ‘patient-for-longer’ stance from the ECB could be among us for longer than expected. Against the backdrop of souring risk-appetite trend, the greenback should emerge stronger and is expected to keep weighing on spot for the time being. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.1231 and a breakout of 1.1254 (high Apr.1) would target 1.1278 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1338 (200-week SMA). On the flip side, the next support emerges at 1.1183 (low Apr.2) followed by 1.1176 (low Mar.7) and finally 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

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