EUR/USD Price Analysis: Trades with negative bias below one-month peak, bullish potential intact

EUR/USD pulls back from over a one-month peak amid a modest USD uptick on Monday.
Dovish Fed expectations cap the USD and help limit losses ahead of the ECB on Thursday.
The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for some near-term gains.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers on the first day of a new week and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to over a one-month peak, around the 1.0910 area touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade below the 1.0900 mark amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though any meaningful corrective decline seems elusive.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 1.0800 confluence hurdle – comprising 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) – and a downward-sloping line favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

Some follow-through buying beyond the 1.0910-1.0915 area mark will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the EUR/USD pair to the next relevant resistance near the 1.0960-1.0965 region. The momentum could extend beyond the March peak, around the 1.0880 area, and allow spot prices to reclaim the 1.1000 psychological mark for the first time since January heading into the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

On the flip side, any meaningful dip is likely to attract fresh buyers near the descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, near the 1.0870-1.0865 area. This should help limit the downside for the EUR/USD pair near the 1.0800 confluence support. The latter is followed by support near the 1.0755-1.0750 horizontal zone, which if broken could drag spot prices below the 1.0700 mark, towards the June swing low, around the 1.0665 region.

Economic Indicator

ECB Monetary Policy Statement

At each of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eight governing council meetings, the ECB releases a short statement explaining its monetary policy decision, in light of its goal of meeting its inflation target. The statement may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for EUR, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.

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