- EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0745 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The negative outlook of the pair remains intact below the key 100-day EMA.
- The first upside barrier will emerge at 1.0786; the initial support level is seen at 1.0650.
The EUR/USD pair consolidates gains around 1.0745 during the early European session on Wednesday. Data released on Tuesday showed that the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone cooled down in June, in line with the market consensus. This figure has triggered hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which might cap the upside of the Euro (EUR) for the time being.
The major pair keeps the bearish vibe unchanged on the daily chart as it holds below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In the near term, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50-midline, suggesting the neutral momentum of the pair.
The crucial upside barrier for the major pair is seen at 1.0786, the 100-day EMA. Further north, the next hurdle is located at 1.0835, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above the latter will expose 1.0885, a high of May 15.
On the downside, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band near 1.0650 acts as an initial support level for EUR/USD. The additional downside filter to watch is the 1.0600 psychological level. A breach of this level will see a drop to 1.0522, a low of October 26.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases toward 1.0700 as USD finds feet ahead of ADP, Fed Minutes
EUR/USD is retreating toward 1.0700 in the early European session on Wednesday. The pair struggles, as the US Dollar finds its feet in the aftermath of the dovish Fed Chair Powell's comments. Cooling EU inflation keeps the Euro undermined. Eyes turn to US ADP data, Fed Minutes.
GBP/USD flatlines below 1.2700, looks to US data/Fed minutes
GBP/USD is lacking a firm directional bias below 1.2700 on Wednesday, reversing early gains. Traders appear reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC minutes while the UK elections on Thursday also keep them on the edge. US ADP data eyed as well.
Gold eyes a range breakout, as Fed Minutes looms
Gold price is trading around a flatline near $2,330 early Wednesday, as traders consider the recent US jobs data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, bracing for yet another busy US calendar.
Bitcoin struggles around $64,000 level
Bitcoin faces resistance near the $64,000 daily level, leading to a 1.05% decline in trading on Wednesday. Ethereum and Ripple similarly encounter resistance, resulting in 1% and 0.5% declines, respectively.
UK election update: Labour slips in the polls, but remains trusted with the economy
With one day left before the election, the polls suggest that it will be an easy win for Labour, the question is the magnitude of their victory. The final polls before election day have seen support for Labour slip.