- EUR/USD flattened on Monday, churning between 1.1400 and 1.1300.
- The Euro’s multi-session recovery against the Greenback could be poised for a pause.
- Another rate call from the ECB is on the cards this week, markets are broadly expecting a defensive quarter-point rate cut.
EUR/USD spun in a messy circle on Monday, touching the 1.1400 and 1.1300 levels before settling somewhere in the midrange. The US Dollar continues to soften across the board following the Trump administration’s latest about-face on its own tariff threats, but market sentiment remains tepid as investor fears of continued trade tensions simmer in the background.
Tuesday will bring a smattering of European mid-tier sentiment indicators, followed by US Retail Sales data slated for Wednesday. However, the key schedule item for EUR/USD this week will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest rate call on Thursday.
Markets are overwhelmingly anticipating another quarter-point rate trim from the ECB this week as policymakers brace for steepening economic fallout from the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff policies.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD price action has been plagued by halting stop-and-start momentum, making jerky bullish progress ever since piercing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0650 in early March. Technical bias still favors bidders for the time being, but technical oscillators are beginning to flash warning signs of overbought conditions.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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