- EUR/USD edges lower to 1.0310 in Thursday’s early European session.
- German industrial orders dropped in November, putting pressure on the Euro.
- Fed officials are worried about the inflation impacts from Trump's policies, FOMC minutes show.
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day around 1.0310 during the early European session on Thursday. The downbeat German November Factory Orders and the expectation of aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Greenback. Later on Thursday, the Eurozone Retail Sales for November and the Fedspeak will be in focus.
German Factory Orders sank lower unexpectedly in November, with the figure falling by 5.4% MoM in November, compared to a decline of 1.5% in the previous reading, the Federal Statistics Office of Germany reported Wednesday. This figure came in weaker than the 0% expected. The weaker-than-expected economic data from Germany, the bloc's largest economy, exerts some selling pressure on the shared currency.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials saw the need for a careful approach in the upcoming quarter, adding that President-elect Donald Trump's trade policy could make inflation data harder to read, according to the Minutes from the Fed December 17-18 meeting. The hawkish tones from the US central bank officials could lift the USD and create a headwind for the pair in the near term.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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