- EUR/USD trimmed gains on Thursday after the Fed met market expectations on another rate cut.
- The Fed trimmed its main reference rate by 25 basis points as investors broadly predicted.
- Market participants now pivot to the question of whether or not the Fed has one more rate cut in the barrel for 2024.
EUR/USD trimmed its wick on Thursday, easing back into the 1.0800 handle after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps rate trim. With November's rate call firmly in the bag, rate traders and global markets will immediately pivot to a wait-and-see for December 18, when traders hope the Fed will slap one more quarter-point rate cut on the table to round out the year's Fed rate action.
Fed's Jerome Powell: We don't want the labour market to soften much from here
The Fed brought a follow-up quarter-point rate reduction to the table on Thursday, adding onto September's opening volley of a jumbo 50 bps rate slash. While an additional 25 bps met investor expectations and will keep markets running smoothly, investors will be pivoting quickly to weighing odds of a December three-peat. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in one more 25 bps rate trim from the Fed in December. Investors hoping for a final quarter-point rate trim in December are battling it out with some expectations that the Fed may hold after November, with 67% odds of one last 25 bps rate cut on December 18.
University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index figures due on Friday will wrap up the week’s hectic release schedule. Median market forecasts expect the UoM’s sentiment survey to tick upwards to 71.0 in November after the previous month’s cautious step into 70.5.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD got sent on a Fed-fueled ride on Thursday, putting in tracks north of the 1.0700 handle before running into congestion near 1.0800. Fiber is hamstrung near the familiar technical zone, with price action battling to claw back losses after a steep decline earlier this week that dragged the pair further below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0900.
EUR/USD daily chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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