- EUR/USD begins March month on a positive footing after the biggest monthly fall since September 2022.
- Cautious optimism in the market allows US Dollar to wobble near multi-day higher.
- Strong inflation data from Spain, France contrasts with downbeat US statistics to also underpin recovery moves.
- Germany’s HICP, US PMIs will be crucial for intraday directions.
EUR/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high near 1.0595 heading into Wednesday’s European session. That said, the major currency pair marked the biggest monthly loss since the last September before marking the latest corrective bounce.
In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the broad US Dollar pullback amid a month-start sluggish session and pre-data anxiety. It’s worth noting that the upbeat prints of inflation numbers from Spain and France join China-inspired favor to the risk-on mood to also underpin the EUR/USD rebound.
That said, the preliminary readings of Spanish and French Consumer Price Index (CPI) details for February marked upbeat outcomes and bolstered the hawkish concerns surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next move on Tuesday.
On the contrary, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped for the second consecutive month to 102.9 versus 106.0 prior (revised) while US Housing Price Index drops 0.1% in December versus -0.6% market forecasts and -0.1% prior. Furthermore, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February eased to 43.6 from 44.3 previous readings and 45.0 market consensus whereas the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the said month eased below 11.0 prior and -5.0 expected to -16.
It should be noted that strong prints of China’s Caixin and NBS Manufacturing PMIs for February joins the Non-Manufacturing PMI for the said month to mark an upbeat economic rebound in the world’s biggest industrial player and favored the risk profile. Even so, China Finance Minister Liu He said after the data release that the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not stable.
Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures turn positive after initially tracking Wall Street’s mild losses.
However, the firmer US Treasury bond yields and hawkish Fed bets, as well as the global inflation woes, keep the US Dollar on the bull’s radar. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to mild losses near 104.85 after February’s impressive north-run.
Looking ahead, the first readings of Germany’s key inflation gauge for February, namely the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), could challenge the pair’s upside momentum on missing the upbeat 0.7% MoM forecasts, versus 0.5% prior. Also important to watch are the S&P Global and ISM PMI details for February.
Technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair’s multiple failures to cross the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.0620, join the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals to favor sellers. On the flip side, a two-month-old ascending support line, near 1.0545, could restrict the short-term downside of the pair.
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