EUR/USD rides on weakness in US Dollar, ECB policy in focus

EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0950 as investors see a September Fed rate cut as a done deal.
Better-than-expected US Retail Sales report fails to diminish Fed rate-cut prospects.
The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

EUR/USD reaches a four-month high near 1.0950 in Wednesday’s American session. The major currency pair extends gains after recovering its losses on Tuesday, driven by the better-than-expected United States (US) Retail Sales report for June.

Data showed on Tuesday that monthly Retail Sales remained unchanged, as expected, as lower receipts at auto showrooms were offset by robust demand for core goods. The Retail Sales Control Group, a key measure of consumer spending component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that excludes receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile home dealers, and tobacco stores, rose at a stronger pace of 0.9% than the former release of 0.4%.

The US Census Bureau also revised May’s Retail Sales reading to 0.3% from 0.1%, adding to economic strength. Though the Retail Sales report has emerged better than estimates, it is unable to weaken firm speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

Traders see the gossip of rate cuts in September as a done deal due to cooling inflationary pressures and easing labor market strength. The recent consumer inflation report for June signaled that the disinflation process has resumed after a hiatus in the first quarter of the year.

Also, recent commentary from Fed officials has indicated that their confidence in inflation declining to the bank’s target of 2% has improved. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler signaled cautious optimism that inflation is on the path to return to the bank’s target of 2%. Kugler acknowledged progress in disinflation in all three categories: goods, services and now housing, Reuters reported.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD strengthens as US Dollar slumps on firm Fed rate-cut prospects

EUR/USD is expected to trade cautiously with a focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for Thursday. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to commentary on the interest rate outlook to know when the ECB will cut interest rates again.
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June after maintaining a restrictive interest rate framework for two years to tame hot inflationary pressures driven by coronavirus pandemic-led stimulus. ECB officials voted to roll back the tight policy stance after gaining confidence that inflation will return to the desired rate of 2%. However, policymakers expect price pressures to remain at their current levels for the entire year and return to the bank’s target next year.
Financial markets expect the ECB to deliver two more rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, investors’ sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, has deteriorated due to weak demand from both domestic and overseas markets.
On Tuesday, a sharp decline in the German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment for July raised concerns over the economic outlook. The sentiment data, a key measure of the sentiment of institutional investors towards economic growth, declined at a robust pace to 41.8 from the consensus of 42.5 and May’s reading of 47.5.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds gains above 1.0900

EUR/USD edges higher to near 1.0950. The major currency pair strengthens after a breakout of a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern results in wider ticks and heavy volume. The shared currency pair is expected to extend its upside towards the March 8 high near 1.0980.

The major currency pair’s near-term outlook is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0816 is sloping higher.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting a strong upside momentum.

Economic Indicator

ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate

One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital.

Next release: Thu Jul 18, 2024 12:15

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 4.25%

Previous: 4.25%

Source: European Central Bank

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