- EUR/USD has started the week on a god mood above 1.1200.
- The ECB Forum in Portugal will be in the limelight.
- Fed rate cuts, trade tensions keep dominating the sentiment.
The shared currency has managed to regain some composure on Monday and is now lifting EUR/USD to the 1.1220 region after testing the boundaries of 1.1200 the figure on Friday.
EUR/USD looks to data, Sintra
The pair is looking to reverse the negative performance seen during last week following the rejection from tops in the mid-1.1300s, just ahead of the critical 200-day SMA.
Renewed buying pressure around the buck, unabated trade tensions plus the dovish stance from the European Central Bank have all been weighing on spot in past sessions, forcing it to revisit levels last seen in early June.
Moving forward, the key ECB Forum at Sintra (Portugal) kicks in later in the day with attention shifting to speeches by key members of the central bank, including President Mario Draghi (today and tomorrow).
Across the ocean, the always-relevant NY Empire State manufacturing gauge is due seconded by the NAHB index and TIC Flows.
What to look for around EUR
The broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the US-China trade spat. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility, with the centre of the debate on the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini. EUR, however, is expected to remain under scrutiny amidst the renewed dovish stance from the ECB and the ongoing slowdown in the region.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.04% at 1.1211 and faces the initial support at 1.1202 (low Jun.14) seconded by 1.1200 (low Jun.6) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30). On the upside, a break above 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1358 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).
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