- EUR/USD may face challenges as recent Eurozone inflation data have strengthened the likelihood of an ECB rate cut.
- Friday’s US economic data raised uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September.
- Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment of rate adjustment.
EUR/USD attempts to recoup losses from the previous session, trading near 1.1090 during Monday's Asian session. However, the EUR/USD pair's upside may be capped, as recent eurozone inflation data have solidified expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at upcoming Thursday's policy meeting.
With headline inflation nearing 2% and long-term inflation forecasts holding steady around the same level, the ECB has sufficient justification to further ease its monetary policy stance. Additionally, last week's mixed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone has reinforced expectations of a potential rate cut by the ECB.
On Friday, US economic data raised uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) added 142,000 jobs in August, below the forecast of 160,000 but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2%, as expected, down from 4.3% in the previous month.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the US central bank is imminent, according to CNBC. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which uses a custom AI model to evaluate Fed officials' speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10, rated Goolsbee's comments as dovish, assigning them a score of 3.2.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retests daily lows near 1.0850 on softer US PPI
EUR/USD remains on the defensive against the backdrop of another positive day in the US Dollar, always amid intense tariff jitters and weaker-than-expected US Producer Prices in February.
Gold looks bid and trades close to $2,950
Gold extends its winning streak, moving toward the $2,950 mark after notching gains over the past two sessions. Heightened fears of an economic downturn, spurred by escalating trade tensions, have fueled a risk-off environment—further boosting the allure of the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.
GBP/USD remains offered near 1.2940 on USD buying
The continuation of the buying interest in the Greenback keeps the risk complex under pressure, motivating GBP/USD to recede to the 1.2940 region and reverse two consecutive days of gains for the time being.
Metaverse narrative stalls as price action fades, but on-chain data signals continuing accumulation
Metaverse tokens are cryptocurrencies associated with virtual worlds, digital economies, and immersive online experiences. Tokens like Sandbox, Decentraland, and Axie Infinity, three of the most prominent assets during the Metaverse boom of 2021, continue to face correction since they topped in early December.
Brexit revisited: Why closer UK-EU ties won’t lessen Britain’s squeezed public finances
The UK government desperately needs higher economic growth as it grapples with spending cuts and potential tax rises later this year. A reset of UK-EU economic ties would help, and sweeping changes are becoming more likely.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.