- EUR/USD rotates around 1.0850 once more.
- US data missed expectations, briefly weakening the US Dollar.
- European PMIs broadly beat, but Europe’s PPI missed.
EUR/USD drove into a fresh intraday high of 1.0876 on Tuesday but flopped back to the day’s opening bids after the market readjusted following a worse-than-expected print in the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Europe’s final HCOB Composite PMI for February printed above expectations after finding additional calculation gains over the preliminary print. However, the pan-European Producer Price Index (PPI) failed to recover as markets had expected. Tuesday’s US PMI missed expectations, and markets will be pivoting to keep an eye out for key US labor figures and a two-day appearance from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD returns to midrange after cycling on Tuesday
- Europe’s final HCOB Services PMI for February rose to 49.2 versus the expected hold at the preliminary print of 48.9.
- The euro area’s January MoM final PPI missed the mark, holding at the preliminary -0.9% versus the expected rebound to -0.1%.
- The US ISM Services PMI for February fell faster than expected, declining to 52.6 versus the forecasted downtick to 53.0 from 53.4.
- US Factory Orders in January also saw accelerated declines, printing at -3.6% versus the forecast of -2.9%. The previous month saw a downside revision to -0.3% from 0.2%.
- EU Retail Sales are due early Wednesday, with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next rate call slated for Thursday.
- Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks on both Wednesday and Thursday, testifying before the US government’s House Financial Services Committee.
- US ADP Employment Change figures also due Wednesday as a precursor to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.14% | -0.37% | 0.27% | 0.32% | -0.14% | 0.21% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.23% | 0.42% | 0.47% | 0.01% | 0.36% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.37% | 0.23% | 0.63% | 0.69% | 0.24% | 0.57% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.64% | 0.06% | -0.41% | -0.06% | -0.27% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | -0.47% | -0.70% | -0.05% | -0.47% | -0.11% | -0.32% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.29% | 0.38% | 0.43% | 0.33% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.21% | -0.36% | -0.59% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.35% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.37% | 0.27% | 0.32% | -0.14% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Technical analysis: EUR/USD remains trapped near 1.0850
EUR/USD continues to struggle to find adequate bullish momentum to peel the pair off its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0830, and intraday bids are stuck near 1.0850. Topside gains are capped by a 50-day SMA grinding into a congestion pattern with the 200-day SMA.
The pair has struggled to chalk in additional gains after recovering from the last swing low into 1.0700. Growing risk of a technical ceiling priced in below 1.0900 leaves the pair exposed to intraday congestion. Tuesday’s brief rally into 1.0875 saw a sharp pullback, and the pair has a technical floor baked in between 1.0800 and 1.0810.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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