- EUR/USD suffered a contracting triangle breakdown on Friday, courtesy of heightened global growth fears and resulting risk aversion in the equities.
- The pair could suffer a deeper drop toward 1.1215 if the equity markets continue to slide.
- The USD will likely pick up a strong bid later in the week if the Fed sounds less dovish-than-expected.
The American dollar could continue to draw bids, sending the EUR/USD pair lower toward the recent low of 1.1215 if the global equities remain risk-averse on mounting global growth fears.
The technical biased has already turned bearish as Friday's close of 1.1303 confirmed a symmetrical triangle breakdown - a bearish continuation pattern, which indicates the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has resumed.
The US stocks turned risk averse on Friday, with S&P 500 falling 1.2 percent, after a below-forecast China's retail sales, industrial production data amplified fears of a global growth slowdown. The dismal European services and manufacturing surveys further added to the malaise. More importantly, these data points overshadowed easing concerns regarding Italy's budget and boosted the haven demand for the US dollar.
The greenback could continue to climb higher, validating the bearish breakdown on the EUR/USD chart, if the equities extend Friday's losses. The pair, however, may have a relook at the former support-turned-resistance of the lower edge of the triangle if the equities trade in green as hinted by the 0.32 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
The Eurozone trade balance and the November CPI, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, may not have a big impact on the EUR pairs.
Big moves can be seen later in the week after Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. The pair could set new 2018 lows below 1.1215 if the US central bank sounds less dovish-than-expected, forcing markets to scale back expectations of a rate hike pause in 2019.
The markets are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points and signal a wait-and-see approach for 2019.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
EUR/USD
Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.1311
Today Daily change: 10 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.0885%
Today Daily Open: 1.1301
Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 1.136
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1399
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1498
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1717
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.1374
Previous Daily Low: 1.1269
Previous Weekly High: 1.1444
Previous Weekly Low: 1.1269
Previous Monthly High: 1.15
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1216
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1309
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1334
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1256
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1211
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1152
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.136
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1419
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1464
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0400, volumes remain light on New Year's Eve
EUR/USD stabilizes at around 1.0400 on Tuesday following Monday's choppy action. The cautious market stance helps the US Dollar stay resilient against its rivals and doesn't allow the pair to gain traction as trading conditions remain thin heading into the end of the year.
GBP/USD retreats below 1.2550 after short-lasting recovery attempt
GBP/USD loses its traction and retreats below 1.2550 after climbing above 1.2600 on Monday. Although falling US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD at the beginning of the week, the risk-averse market atmosphere supported the currency, capping the pair's upside.
Gold rebounds after finding support near $2,600
After posting losses for two consecutive days, Gold found support near $2,600 and staged a rebound early Tuesday. As investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of the New Year Day holiday, XAU/USD clings to daily gains at around $2,620.
These three narratives could fuel crypto in 2025, experts say
Crypto market experienced higher adoption and inflow of institutional capital in 2024. Experts predict the trends to look forward to in 2025, as the market matures and the Bitcoin bull run continues.
Three Fundamentals: Year-end flows, Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI stand out Premium
Money managers may adjust their portfolios ahead of the year-end. Weekly US Jobless Claims serve as the first meaningful release in 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI provides an initial indication ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.