EUR/USD - Focus on inflation differential & the impact on bond yield spread

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD regained poised on Thursday as the USD rally stalled despite the upward revision of the US Q2 GDP. The currency pair closed at 1.1786 and traded flat lined around 1.780 levels in Asia.

Focus on inflation differential

The preliminary Eurozone data due today at 09:00GMT are expected to show the cost of living as represented by the consumer price index [CPI] ticked higher to 1.6% y/y in September. The core CPI is seen rising 1.2% y/y vs. previous figure of 1.3%.

Across the pond, core PCE inflation — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure on price pressures — is forecast to lift 0.2% in August following a 0.1% increase in July.

The US-German 10-year yield spread could widen further in favor of the US dollar if the Eurozone CPI misses estimates and the US core PCE betters estimates.

Yield spread daily chart - Bullish falling channel breakout

The bullish pattern indicates stage is set for a blast higher [widening of the spread].

EUR/USD Technical Levels

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, " Short term, the 4 hour chart shows that the price was unable to recover above a bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator aims north, pressuring its mid-line, while the RSI indicator lost directional strength, now flat around 43, and after correcting oversold conditions. The pair could extend its corrective movement on an advance beyond the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, with scope, then to extend its recovery up to 1.1852, the 61.8% retracement of the same slide. The immediate support is 1.1765, followed by the 1.1720 region, where the pair bottomed multiple times during the last two days.

Support levels: 1.1765 1.1720 1.1690

Resistance levels: 1.1800 1.1850 1.1890

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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