EUR/USD finds thin gains on Monday, but technicals weigh heavy ahead of US inflation updates


  • Final Euro inflation figures to be overshadowed by US CPI inflation print.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to speak on Tuesday.
  • US consumer inflation expectations rose again, complicating the path to rate cuts.

EUR/USD found slim upside on Monday, climbing from early bids near 1.0770 but bullish momentum remains limited with the pair struggling to break above the 1.0800 level.

German final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures are due during the European market session, but the mid-tier final inflation print is unlikely to drive market volatility unless inflation numbers see late adjustments compared to the preliminary figures. European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter are slated for Wednesday, and markets are expected QoQ GDP growth to hold steady at 0.3%.

US consumer inflation expectations rose in April according to a survey from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York. According to the NY Fed’s consumer sentiment survey, US consumers broadly expect inflation over the next year to accelerate to 3.3%. Consumer one-year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% in March.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation numbers are due during Tuesday’s US market session, where investors are expecting producer-level inflation in April to tick higher to 0.3% MoM compared to the previous month’s 0.2%.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD continues to trade into the high end after a bounce-and-run from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last week near 1.0730. Bullish potential remains capped by a near-term supply zone above the 1.0800 handle.

Daily candlesticks show the EUR/USD trading into firm technical resistance at the 200-day EMA at 1.0789, a failed launch from bidders could see the pair falling back into the last swing low near 1.0600. A topside break from buyers will send the pair into immediate resistance from the last swing high just below 1.0900.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0791
Today Daily Change 0.0019
Today Daily Change % 0.18
Today daily open 1.0772
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0705
Daily SMA50 1.0789
Daily SMA100 1.083
Daily SMA200 1.0792
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.079
Previous Daily Low 1.076
Previous Weekly High 1.0791
Previous Weekly Low 1.0724
Previous Monthly High 1.0885
Previous Monthly Low 1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0772
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0779
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0758
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0744
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0728
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0788
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0804
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0818

 

 

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