- German CPI inflation continues to rise, but below forecasts.
- Fed rate call, pan-EU GDP and HICP inflation in the mid-week.
- NFP Friday a key US datapoint this week.
EUR/USD jostled on Monday, settling near 1.0720 after churning in a tight but lopsided range as markets settle in for the wait to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) outing. Investors broadly expect US rates to hold steady this week, but traders will be looking for an uptick in Fed guidance for when rate cuts could be coming. As of writing, the CME’s FedWatch Tool shows rate markets are pricing in 58% odds of a first rate cut in September.
German Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 0.5% MoM in April, up from the previous month’s 0.4% but missing the forecast 0.6%. Germany’s YoY Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation ticked higher to 2.4%, compared to the forecast hold at 2.3%. Markets will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s HICP inflation for the pan-Euro area, which is expected to stand pat at 2.4% for the year ended April.
European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are also due during Tuesday’s European market session, forecast to grind higher to a scant 0.1% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter’s flat 0.0%.
The key headlines this week will be the Fed’s latest rate call on Wednesday, followed by Friday’s NFP labor data, which is expected to show a slight easing from the previous month’s 12-month peak of 303k. Friday’s US NFP is forecast to ease to 243k net additional job growth.
EUR/USD technical outlook
The EUR/USD churned just north of the 1.0700 handle on Monday as the pair continues to grind higher off of technical bounces from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising into the 1.0700 region. Chart paper north of 1.0750 is proving a difficult boundary to cross, and downside momentum, though sluggish, continues to keep the pair weighed down.
EUR/USD remains down 2.5% from the last major swing high into 1.0980, with a near-term price floor at 1.0600.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD tumbles to 14-month lows near 1.2250
GBP/USD accelerates its decline and hits the lowest level in over a year near 1.2250 in European trading on Thursday. The pair feels the heat from the UK bond market sell-off, with the 10-year Gilt yields at the highest since August 2008. Extended US Dollar strength and a bearish daily technical setup exaerbates the pain.
EUR/USD holds losses near 1.0300 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales data
EUR/USD trades with mild losses for the third consecutive day at around 1.0300 in the European session on Thursday. Encouraging German Industrial Production data for November fail to lift the Euro amid a sustained US Dollar demand. Eurozone Retail Sales and Fedspeak are next in focus.
Gold price moves back closer to multi-week top; modest USD strength might cap gains
Gold price turns positive for the third straight day and draws support from a combination of factors. Geopolitical risks, trade war fears and retreating US bond yields lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
BNB poised for a decline on negative Funding Rate
BNB price hovers around $696.40 on Thursday after declining 4.58% in the previous two days. BNB’s momentum indicators hint for a further decline as its Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence show bearish signals.
Bitcoin edges below $96,000, wiping over leveraged traders
Bitcoin's price continues to edge lower, trading below the $96,000 level on Wednesday after declining more than 5% the previous day. The recent price decline has triggered a wave of liquidations across the crypto market, resulting in $694.11 million in total liquidations in the last 24 hours.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.