- EUR/USD crossed into new highs for the year as markets sell off the US Dollar.
- Investors are broadly anticipating further signs pointing to a September rate cut.
- US PMI figures still loom ahead alongside the impending kickoff of Jackson Hole.
EUR/USD breached into a fresh 13-month peak on Wednesday, testing north of 1.1150 as the pair continues to grind its way toward 1.1200. Markets are selling off the Greenback across the board as investor confidence in a September rate cut rises to dizzying highs. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is broadly expected to deliver at least a quarter-point rate cut on September 18, with markets hoping for the possibility of a double cut.
According to the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes, policymakers noted that discussions of when to deliver rate cuts to pleading market participants had already begin in July, further firming up odds of at least a quarter-point trim on September 18. In true market participant fashion, rate markets bolstered their bets of a double cut from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting, with rate traders pricing in nearly 40% odds of a 50 bps trim on September 18.
Pan-European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity survey results are expected early Thursday, with the EU Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August both expected to hold steady, at 45.8 and 51.9, respectively.
US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) business activity survey results are slated for release on Thursday, as well as the kickoff of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium which is set to run through the weekend. Wednesday will deliver the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes, but market forces will broadly be looking ahead to Thursday’s outings for reasons to move.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI activity expectations are forecast to hold steady at 49.6 in August, while the Services PMI component is expected to tick down a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The kickoff of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to draw plenty of investor attention on Thursday, but Friday’s appearance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can be expected to set the overall tone of market sentiment heading into next week.
EUR/USD price forecast
Fiber claimed a fourth straight bullish candle on Wednesday, tipping into 1.1174 for the first time in over a year. The pair has closed in the green for all but one of the last eight straight trading days, with EUR/USD chalking in over 3.5% in gains since the pair’s last swing low into the 1.0800 handle before catching a bullish bounce off of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is now rising into 1.0825.
With the pair continuing to defy gravity, the way is clear to the 1.1200 handle, with bidding pressure supported by a fresh high-low pattern baked into the daily candlesticks from 2024’s April lows near 1.0600.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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