- EUR/USD depreciates as strong US labor data bolster expectations that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate levels.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256K in December, exceeding expected 160K and November’s figure of 212K.
- Traders expect the ECB to implement four rate cuts, likely to be announced at each meeting leading up to summer.
EUR/USD remains subdued for the fifth consecutive session, holding its position around 1.0240 during the Asian trading hours. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following stronger-than-expected job growth in the United States (US) for December.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K).
Additionally, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading.
The robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January, supporting the Greenback against other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets anticipate the Fed will maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range during its January 28-29 meeting.
Additionally, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds as traders anticipate four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting by summer. ECB policymakers appear comfortable with these dovish expectations, as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control.
On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy noted that while price pressures were projected to rise slightly in December, interest rates would continue progressing toward the neutral rate “without a slowdown in the pace by summer,” provided upcoming data confirm that the “pullback in price pressures won’t persist.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold gives away some gains, slips back to $2,980
Gold retraced from its earlier all-time highs above the key $3,000 mark on Friday, finding a footing around $2,980 per troy ounce. Profit-taking, rising US yields, and a shift to a risk-on environment seem to be putting the brakes on further gains for the metal.
EUR/USD remains firm and near the 1.0900 barrier
EUR/USD is finding its footing and trading comfortably in positive territory as the week wraps up, shaking off two consecutive daily pullbacks and setting its sights back on the pivotal 1.0900 mark—and beyond.
GBP/USD remains depressed, treads water in the low-1.2900s
GBP/USD is holding steady in consolidation territory after Friday’s opening bell on Wall Street, hovering in the low-1.2900 range. This resilience comes despite disappointing UK data and persistent selling pressure on the USD.
Crypto Today: BNB, OKB, BGB tokens rally as BTC, Shiba Inu and Chainlink lead market rebound
Cryptocurrencies sector rose by 0.13% in early European trading on Friday, adding $352 million in aggregate valuation. With BNB, OKB and BGB attracting demand amid intense market volatility, the exchange-based native tokens sector added $1.9 billion.
Week ahead – Central banks in focus amid trade war turmoil
Fed decides on policy amid recession fears. Yen traders lock gaze on BoJ for hike signals. SNB seen cutting interest rates by another 25bps. BoE to stand pat after February’s dovish cut.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.