EUR/USD edges down on Taiwan risks, ECB meeting on the horizon

EUR/USD edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven flows.
China is saber-rattling in the South China Sea around Taiwan.
Traders sell the Euro ahead of the expected cut at the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

EUR/USD exchanges hands in the 1.0920s on Monday, marginally down on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) attracts safe-haven flows on the back of increasing geopolitical risks stemming from Taiwan, where the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is conducting drills. This prompted a spokesperson from the US Department of State to say on Monday that they were “seriously concerned” with the PLA’s activities in the Strait of Taiwan.

EUR/USD comes under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

EUR/USD could also come under increasing pressure as traders sell the Euro (EUR) ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Most analysts now expect the bank to announce a further 25 basis point (bps) (0.25%) rate cut at the policy meeting, making it the second cut in a row. This, in turn, is likely to weaken the Euro since falling interest rates attract lower foreign capital inflows.

In September, Eurozone headline inflation declined to 1.8%, falling below the ECB’s 2.0% target for the first time in over three years. This, combined with a slowdown in economic activity, is increasing bets of another rate cut on Thursday. Such a move would signal a significant “gear change up” in terms of the pace and timing of the ECB’s easing cycle.

Trading floors in the US, meanwhile, will likely be mostly empty due to employees being away for the Columbus Day public holiday on Monday. Although some equity trading will still go on, the US bond market will be closed.

Investors expect a 25 bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data on Friday, which showed headline PPI slowed to 0.0% on a monthly basis in September – missing expectations of 0.1% and the prior month’s 0.2% reading. Core PPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in August. Annual readings, however, resulted mixed, as PPI decelerated while core PPI rose by 2.8%, above the prior month’s 2.6%. Although mixed annual performance, the monthly readings weighed, as did the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, which fell below September’s reading and analysts’ estimates.

The CME FedWatch Tool is showing the markets are now pricing in around a 90% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut – up from 83% before the PPI data.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bottoms out at 100-day SMA

EUR/USD broke below a key trendline, declined to the level of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and bottomed out.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

The pair probably formed a Double Top bearish reversal pattern at the August and September highs. If so, the pattern would have been confirmed after the break below the neckline at the September 11 low of 1.1002.

The pattern’s initial downside target lies at 1.0872, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the pattern extrapolated lower (blue shaded rectangle on the chart). A further target lies at 1.0874, the 200-day SMA, and 1.0824, the target generated by the trendline break.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is mirroring price as it tracks lower, which is a relatively bearish sign.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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