EUR/USD dropped back to the upper 1.07s in early Asian trade before crawling back to the low 1.08s, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR edges higher
“Comments from ECB Governor Wunsch, adding to the raft of voices who have spoken out against upping the pace of rates cuts recently, helped nudge the EUR higher. Moody’s put French debt on negative outlook Friday.”
“OATs are, however, outperforming marginally in the day, with the outlook revision no great surprise and markets perhaps relieved that – for now, at least – a rating cut was avoided.”
“Spot is consolidating in a developing range around 1.08. The pattern of trade so far suggests a minor pause in the EUR’s decline before losses resume (potential bear flag pattern). The EUR remains heavily oversold on the intraday and daily oscillator studies which does raise the risk of a short squeeze at some point, however. Support is 1.0780. Resistance is 1.0870.”
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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