The Euro (EUR) fell after French services PMI and German manufacturing PMI slumped into contractionary territory. EUR was last at 1.1143, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Mild bullish momentum on daily chart
“Slump in PMIs maybe a concern but it remains to be seen if this is a one-off summer lull or whether it represents a more material economic downturn. Further growth/activity data would be key as confirmation of deeper economic slowdown will suggest that ECB easing may need to play catch up and that would warrant a softer EUR (which markets may contemplate playing this theme pre-emptively).”
“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows tentative signs of waning while RSI turned lower. Technically, double-top bearish reversal appears to be forming. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 1.1090 (21 DMA), 1.1060 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high) and 1.10 (50 DMA).”
“Resistance at 1.1160, 1.12 (2024 high). Looking at EUR-crosses, we favour tactical short EURGBP on growth and monetary policy divergence between EU/ECB and UK/BOE.”
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
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Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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