- EUR/USD marked in a fifth straight down day on Tuesday.
- Market headlines take US data misfire in stride.
- US Durable Goods Orders due on Wednesday as Euro traders left to wait.
EUR/USD has slowed its recent pace of declines, but still lost ground for a fifth consecutive trading day as price action continues to test below 1.0800. The Euro is struggling to find its feet as a notable lack of meaningful EU data on the economic docket leaves Fiber bidders at the mercy of geopolitical headlines and market flows from US data releases.
On Tuesday, the US Conference Board (CB) reported an increase in one-year consumer inflation expectations, rising to 6.2% in March from 5.8% in February. Consumers remain highly concerned about the persistently high prices of essential household items, particularly eggs, and the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Furthermore, the CB’s consumer confidence survey revealed a drop in future economic expectations, plummeting to a new 12-year low of 65.2 in March, significantly below the 80.0 mark that typically signals a possible recession.
Adding to these concerns, Moody’s ratings agency issued a strong warning early Tuesday, highlighting a “deterioration” in the US’s fiscal strength, particularly regarding the increasing challenges of servicing US debt. Moody’s also projected that the country’s fiscal strength is likely to face a prolonged decline, a statement likely to anger Donald Trump and his administration, who are currently advocating for a substantial increase in the debt ceiling from Congress.
In US economic news, Durable Goods Orders are set to be released during the New York market session. Overall, these orders are anticipated to decrease by -1.0% in February, following a solid rebound of 3.2% in January.
EUR/USD price forecast
A steady five-day drop has pushed EUR/USD back below the 1.0800 handle, and the pair could be poised for a furthe backslide into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0675. A near-term turnaround has dragged Fiber back down after a bullish push to the 1.0950 technical level fizzled out, and EUR/USD now has a fresh technical ceiling to contend with if bidders are able to get their ship keel-side down once more.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week low, climbs to 1.0780 area amid USD downtick
The EUR/USD pair rebounds from over a three-week low, around the 1.0735-1.0730 area touched during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now seems to have snapped a six-day losing streak. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 1.0780 region, or a fresh daily high in the last hour, and is sponsored by renewed US Dollar selling bias.
GBP/USD rises above 1.2900 as US yields decline, Q4 GDP Annualized report eyed
GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, climbing to around 1.2910 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair is strengthening as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to declining Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively.
Gold price refreshes weekly top; seems poised to appreciate further amid trade jitters
Gold price regains positive traction on Thursday as rising trade tensions boost safe-haven demand. A modest USD pullback from a multi-week top and Fed rate cut bets also back the XAU/USD pair. Traders look to Thursday’s US macro releases for some impetus ahead of the US PCE data on Friday.
Cardano bulls target double-digit gains as bullish bets increase among traders
Cardano price hovers around $0.74 at the time of writing on Thursday after a recovery of over 4% so far this week. On-chain data hints at a bullish picture as ADA’s stablecoin market cap rises while its bullish bets increase among traders.
Sticky UK services inflation shows signs of tax hike impact
There are tentative signs that the forthcoming rise in employer National Insurance is having an impact on service sector inflation, which came in a tad higher than expected in February. It should still fall back in the second quarter, though, keeping the Bank of England on track for three further rate cuts this year.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.