• The shared currency remains subdued in the North American session but holds to the 1.0900 level amidst a risk-off mood.
  • Contraction in China’s Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs looms as a signal of global economic deceleration.
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: A break below 1.0900 would exacerbate a downward move towards 1.0806.

The EUR/USD remains in choppy trading as market players prepare for the release of the FOMC March’s meeting minutes, but earlier gave way for USD bulls, as it broke below the 1.0900 mark during the European session, but reclaimed the latter in the North American session. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0905, barely flat.

Downbeat market mood and Fedspeaking boosts the greenback

The market sentiment is downbeat, as European equities finished with losses, while across the pond, the history is the same. In the Asian session, news that China’s Caixin Services for March fell below the 50 levels, in the same tenure as Monday’s Manufacturing reading, concerns market players. The recent China Covid-19 outbreak threatens to push the brakes on the global economic recovery.

Elsewhere, the hawkish Fed speaking in the week dragged global equities down while bond yields rose. On Wednesday, Fed’s Governor Lael Brainard spooked the markets, commenting that the balance sheet reduction might begin in the May meeting, something unexpected by traders as they were looking to QT to start in the July meeting. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that a 50 bps move would be an option we must consider and emphasized that conditions favor going faster than before.

Money market futures portrays market players’ response to Brainard’s remarks -one of the doves of the FOMC. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors have priced a 75.5% chance of a 50 bps rate hike in the May meeting, which will lift the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to 1%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s measure against a basket of its rivals, retreats from YTD highs, down 0.05%, sitting at 99.443. Contrarily, the US Treasury yields are rising.

The 10-year benchmark note sits at 2.586%, up one basis point but short of the YTD high at 2.66%, as market players expect the release of March’s monetary policy minutes.

On the Geopolitical front, the fighting continues in Eastern Europe. Moscow said that work is ongoing when the next round of discussions with Ukraine occurs.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD downtrend remains intact and is accelerating towards a retest of the YTD low at 1.0806, as shown by the 300-pip fall in the last five trading days. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.94 below the 50-midline is in bearish territory, with enough room to spare before RSI reaches oversold conditions if the event of the EUR/USD aiming lower.

That said, the EUR/USD first support level would be 1.0900. A clear break would expose the YTD low at 1.0806, followed by April 2020 cycle lows at 1.0727 and then the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak lows in March 2020 at 1.0636.

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0905
Today Daily Change 0.0002
Today Daily Change % 0.02
Today daily open 1.0905
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1014
Daily SMA50 1.1159
Daily SMA100 1.1237
Daily SMA200 1.1476
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0989
Previous Daily Low 1.09
Previous Weekly High 1.1185
Previous Weekly Low 1.0945
Previous Monthly High 1.1233
Previous Monthly Low 1.0806
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0934
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0955
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0874
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0842
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0785
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0963
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.102
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1052

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0450, FOMC Minutes in focus

EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0450, FOMC Minutes in focus

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0450 after closing in the negative territory on Tuesday. The pair's short-term technical outlook highlights a bearish tilt.

EUR/USD News
Gold price renews all-time highs near $2,950

Gold price renews all-time highs near $2,950

Gold price refreshes lifetime highs near $2,95 as trade war fears continue to underpin safe-haven asset. Fed rate cut bets keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and further lend support to the metal as traders await the release of the Fed Minutes later in American trading. 

Gold News
GBP/USD holds above 1.2600 after strong UK inflation data

GBP/USD holds above 1.2600 after strong UK inflation data

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 in the European session on Wednesday after the data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation climbed to 3% in January from 2.5% in December. Market focus shifts to mid-tier US data and FOMC Minutes.

GBP/USD News
Maker Price Forecast: MKR generates highest daily revenue of $10 million

Maker Price Forecast: MKR generates highest daily revenue of $10 million

Maker (MKR) price extends its gains by 6%, trading around $1,189 on Wednesday after rallying more than 20% so far this week. Artemis data shows that MKR generated $10 million in revenue on February 10, the new yearly high in daily revenue.

Read more
Rates down under

Rates down under

Today all Australian eyes were on the Reserve Bank of Australia, and rates were cut as expected. RBA Michele Bullock said higher interest rates had been working as expected, slowing economic activity and curbing inflation, but warned that Tuesday’s first rate cut since 2020 was not the start of a series of reductions.

Read more
The Best Brokers of the Year

The Best Brokers of the Year

SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025