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EUR/USD churns chart paper but makes little progress ahead of Wednesday’s German CPI inflation

EUR/USD failed to capture 1.0890 in Tuesday’s early bull run.
1.0860 remains a key consolidation point for the Fiber.
German CPI inflation due Wednesday, US GDP and PCE inflation loom ahead.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD rose to an intraday high near 1.0890 on Tuesday before market flows dragged the pair back down to familiar levels near 1.0860, and the pair is holding on-balance as Euro traders head into a fresh print of German Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Key US data hides just around the corner with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation due on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

German CPI inflation in May is expected to ease to 0.2% MoM in May, down from the previous 0.5% as investors hope CPI inflation in key European economies will turn around and continue to ease in time to push the European Central Bank (ECB) into a quarter-point cut at the central bank’s upcoming rate call in June.

US investors have been fighting an uphill battle trying to time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a first rate cut. Back in December, markets had priced in upwards of six cuts of at least 25 basis points apiece, with the first quarter-point-minimum cut expected in March. Today, rate markets are pricing in roughly-even odds of a quarter-point cut to come in September, with hopes of two total cuts in 2024 withering on the vine.

US Annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slated for Thursday is forecast to ease to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. Friday’s US PCE Price Index inflation on Friday is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD is cycling in familiar technical congestion, but a hidden bullish divergence of the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) implies the pair could be primed for a push higher if bidders are able to springboard off of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average at 1.0844.

However, the 200-day EMA at 1.0804 is acting as a price magnet, threatening to pull the pair down, and daily candlesticks are drifting into familiar middle territory. The daily MACD is also easing back into directionless territory.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0857
Today Daily Change	-0.0002
Today Daily Change %	-0.02
Today daily open	1.0859

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0799
Daily SMA50	1.0776
Daily SMA100	1.0813
Daily SMA200	1.0788

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0868
Previous Daily Low	1.0841
Previous Weekly High	1.0884
Previous Weekly Low	1.0805
Previous Monthly High	1.0885
Previous Monthly Low	1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0857
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0851
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0844
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0829
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0817
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0871
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0882
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0897

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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