EUR/USD: Can rise further to 1.0600 before a pause

The Euro (EUR) could rise further to 1.0600 before a pause can be expected; 1.0650 is highly unlikely to come into view today. In the longer run, downward has faded, and upward momentum is building. EUR could rebound further, potentially reaching 1.0650, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

EUR can rebound even further, potentially reaching 1.0650

24-HOUR VIEW: “Following EUR’s wide swings on Tuesday, we indicated yesterday that it ‘is likely to trade in a relatively broad range, probably between 1.0435 and 1.0535.’ However, EUR blew above 1.0535 and soared to a high of 1.0587. Although the rapid surge seems overdone, there is no indication of momentum loss just yet. EUR could continue to rise to 1.0600 before a pause can be expected. The major resistance at 1.0650 is highly unlikely to come into view today. Support is at 1.0545; a breach of 1.0520 would mean that EUR is not rising further.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in EUR since one week ago. As we tracked the decline, we emphasised on Monday (25 Nov, spot at 1.0475) that ‘while the weakness in EUR remains intact, it must break and remain below last Friday’s low of 1.0333 before further decline can be expected.’ Yesterday (27 Nov, spot at 1.0490), we noted that ‘downward momentum appears to be slowing, and the likelihood of EUR breaking below 1.0333 is decreasing.’ EUR subsequently soared and broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 1.0560, reaching a high of 1.0587. Not only has downward momentum faded, but upward momentum is also beginning to build. We view the current price action as part of a rebound that could potentially reach 1.0650. On the downside, should EUR break below 1.0490 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that the buildup in momentum has eased.”

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