- The EUR/USD slides during the North American session, some 0.09%.
- ECB minutes lifted the EUR/USD above 1.0900, but a risk-off sentiment and Fed’s minutes dragged the pair under the former.
- EUR/USD Price Forecast: The break of a rising wedge opened the door towards 1.0700.
The shared currency is almost flat in the North American session after reaching a daily high at 1.0938, courtesy of hawkish than expected European Central Bank (ECB) March meeting minutes, despite broad risk aversion in the market. Nevertheless, of late, the EUR/USD dipped below the 1.0900 mark and is trading at 1.0879 at the time of writing.
ECB minutes perceived as hawkish
On Thursday, the ECB unveiled its March 10 minutes. The Governing Council (GC) said that it could afford to be patient, with measures of long-term inflation expectations at around 2%. Regarding the Ukraine-Russia War, the GC added that the initial effects of the war on the EU economy would be upwards on inflation and downwards on economic growth and noted that it could have inflationary/disinflationary impacts in the longer term.
Concerning inflation, a large number of ECB members noted that inflation is high and persistent, so-called for immediate further steps toward monetary policy normalization.
The EUR/USD reacted upwards on the release. However, a dismal market sentiment courtesy of the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, exerted downward pressure on the common currency, dragging the pair back under the 1.0900 mark.
The EU economic docket revealed Retail Sales for February. The monthly reading expanded by 0.3%, at a slower pace than the 0.6% estimated. But, the year-over-year figure rose by 5%, higher than the 4.8% foreseen though trailed by January’s 8.4% increase.
The US docket revealed Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on April 2, which came at 166K less than the 200K expected.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD bias remains downwards and further cemented it when on April 4, the EUR/USD broke the upslope trendline of a rising wedge, which opened the door towards 1.0700, but first would need to overcome some hurdles on its way down.
The EUR/USD first support would be 1.0848. A breach of the latter would expose the 2022 YTD low at 1.0806, followed by April 2020 swing lows around 1.0727, and then the abovementioned 1.0700 mark.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD faces potential extra gains near term
Further weakness in the US Dollar allowed AUD/USD to rapidly forget Friday’s pullback and resume the uptrend well north of 0.6700 the figure amidst quite an auspicious start to the new trading week.
EUR/USD now retargets the 1.1150 region
EUR/USD managed to regain upside impulse and break above the 1.1100 barrier to print new multi-day peaks on the back of increasing downward pressure in the Greenback ahead of the key FOMC meeting.
Gold consolidates gains near fresh all-time highs
Gold trades in a narrow range above $2,580 after touching a new record-high near $2,590 earlier in the day. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds above 3.6% ahead of the Fed meeting and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to find direction.
MicroStrategy plans to buy additional Bitcoin following $700 million convertible notes sale
MicroStrategy plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings after announcing a $700 million convertible senior notes offering on Monday. The announcement follows its $1.11 billion Bitcoin purchase a few days ago.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed overtowers pivotal week for Gold, stocks and the US Dollar Premium
The Fed's first rate cut stands out as economic uncertainty mounts. US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims are of high interest. Rate decisions by central banks in the UK and Japan are also pivotal.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.