EUR/USD advances amid soft US data, Fed comments

EUR/USD rises to 1.0858, facing resistance at the 100-day MA, influenced by US data and Eurozone PMIs.
Rising US jobless claims and trade deficit, alongside falling Treasury yields, weigh on the Dollar.
Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts due to inflation, and stronger Eurozone services PMIs, support the Euro.

The Euro posts solid gains against the US Dollar, though it faces stirring resistance at the 100-day moving average (DMA), which caps the pair's advance toward 1.0900. Weaker-than-expected US jobs market data and upbear services PMIs in the Eurozone (EU) sponsored a leg-up for the shared currency. The EUR/USD trades at 1.0858, up 0.21%.

EUR/USD approaches 1.0900, buoyed by Eurozone PMI strength and weak US labor market data

The Greenback is treading water after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 30 increased from 212K to 221K, exceeding forecasts of 214K. At the same time, the US Balance of Trade blocked a $-68.9 billion deficit, wider than expected and the previous month's reading, a headwind for the US Dollar.

US Treasury yields edged lower, as depicted by the 10-year benchmark note rate dipping to 4.31%, before resuming to 4.353%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency’s value against a basket of peers, is down 0.15% at 104.06.

Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires led by Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker, saying that inflation is too high. Recently, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed could be patient regarding cutting interest rates. He’s optimistic about achieving a “soft landing,” even though he complained about recent inflation data. In the meantime, Chicago’s Fed President, Austan Goolsbee, stated that the biggest danger to inflation is housing price pressures. He added that by keeping rates restrictive for too long, the labor market could begin to deteriorate.

Across the pond, Euro services PMIs improved across the block in March. EU Services PMI rose to 51.5, up from 50.2 in February. The German reading expanded for the first tie in six months.

Given the backdrop, traders are still projecting the first ECB rate cut in June. On the contrary, market players expect the first Fed cut for the July meeting ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD remains neutrally biased, with price action failing to put a lower low after posting back-to-back lower highs. On the upside, the 100-DMA is key resistance at 1.0875, ahead of 1.0900. Buyers must clear those two levels if they would like to reach 1.1000. If sellers push prices below the confluence of the 200 and 50-DMAs, at 1.0833, a fall toward 1.0800 is on the cards. Further losses are seen beneath, with the next lower low swing point being the April 2 low of 1.0724.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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