- The 5-day exponential moving average (EMA) has proved a tough nut to crack for three straight days.
- The bearish pressure may ease above the 5-day EMA.
- The 4-hour chart is reporting a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI).
- An above-forecast German CPI and Eurozone GDP could bode well for the common currency.
The 5-day EMA of 1.1397 is the level to beat for the EUR bulls. This is because the key EMA acted as a stiff resistance in the last three days.
The bearish pressure around the common currency will likely wane if the pair convincingly beats the 5-day EMA hurdle. That could happen today as the currency pair charted a bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart yesterday.
Further, risk sentiment likely stabilized in Asia. The S&P 500 futures gained 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite erased early losses to trade in the positive territory. As a result, the European equities and the EUR could remain better bid during the day ahead.
Focus on Eurozone data releases
The preliminary third-quarter GDP, due at 10:00 GMT, is expected to show that growth rate remained unchanged at 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, but slowed to 1.8 percent year-on-year, from the previous quarter's print of 2.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the preliminary German CPI for October is expected to print at 0.1 percent month-on-month, following September's 0.4 percent reading.
An above-forecast German CPI and upbeat Eurozone GDP could boost demand for the EUR. However, the prospects of a convincing move above the 5-day EMA would drop sharply if the Italy-German yield spread spikes, representing rising concerns about Italy's budget.
Technical Levels
EUR/USD
Overview:
Last Price: 1.1382
Daily change: -1.5e+2 pips
Daily change: -1.29%
Daily Open: 1.1531
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.1571
Daily SMA50: 1.1584
Daily SMA100: 1.1623
Daily SMA200: 1.1909
Levels:
Daily High: 1.154
Daily Low: 1.1531
Weekly High: 1.1551
Weekly Low: 1.1336
Monthly High: 1.1816
Monthly Low: 1.1526
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1496
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1472
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1453
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1392
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1351
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1555
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1596
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1657
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.