- EUR's recovery from 21-month lows reached last Thursday contradict the widening of the US-DE yield differential.
- A better-than-expected US CPI will likely push EUR back into the bearish territory below 1.12.
EUR/USD's recovery from recent lows below 1.12 could be short-lived, as the yield differential is widening in the EUR-negative manner.
The pair is currently trading at 1.1260, having hit a high of 1.1274 earlier today. The recovery from the low of 1.1176 seen on Thursday is likely a result of risk reset in equities and more importantly, contradicts the widening of the US-German bond yield differential.
The spread between the 10-year US and German (DE) government bond yields is currently seen at 259.2 basis points - the highest level since Dec. 18. Notably, the spread is up five basis points from the low of 254 basis points seen on Friday. So, EUR/USD's bounce from 21-month lows looks like a bear trap.
The benchmark bond yield spread may widen further in the EUR-negative manner if the US consumer price index for February, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, betters estimate.
Technically speaking, the move back above 1.12 has weakened the bearish case put forward by Thursday's close at 1.1193. With US-DE bond yield spread rising, the EUR is not out of the woods yet and could again close below 1.12 on strong US data.
That would imply a downside break of the multi-month trading range of 1.12-1.15 and open the doors to 1.10.
Technical Levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD consolidates gains below 1.0500 amid weaker US Dollar
EUR/USD holds gains below 1.0500 in European trading on Monday, having recovered from its two-year low of 1.0332. This rebound is due to a sell-off in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields amid a US bond market rally. The focus shifts to German data and ECB-speak.
GBP/USD flirts with 2600 on the road to recovery
GBP/USD is trading close to 1.2600 early Monday, opening with a bullish gap at the start of a new week. A broad US Dollar decline alongside the US Treasury bond yields on appointment of a fiscal hawk Scott Bessent as the Treasury Chief helped the pair stage a solid comeback.
Gold price sticks to heavy intraday losses amid risk-on mood, holds above $2,650 level
Gold price witnessed an intraday turnaround after touching a nearly three-week high, around the $2,721-2,722 area and snapped a five-day winning streak at the start of a new week. Bets for slower Fed rate cuts also drive flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
Elections, inflation, and the bond market
The Federal Reserve believes inflation is no longer a concern for consumers and the time has come to ensure the rate of change of prices does not decline any further.
Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.