EUR/USD held in surprisingly well yesterday – as did European automakers. The Eurostoxx autos and parts index only fell 1% on the day, either because tariffs were priced in or the view that they would be negotiated away. Price action yesterday could be a precursor to next Wednesday, when the euro could take a hit once 20% across-the-board US tariffs are potentially levied on the EU, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The 1.0730 area to hold the pressure
"Notably, we are seeing some longer-term EUR/USD bullishness in the FX options market. Despite the EUR/USD spot having come steadily lower over the last week, the FX options market has seen increasing demand for longer-term euro call options."
"For example, the one-year risk reversal skew – the price for a euro put option over a euro call option – has decreased to 0.34% from 0.66% over the last week. This one-year skew shifting in favour of euro calls was last seen in 2020 and would be a big talking point."
"EUR/USD in theory should look vulnerable to a sticky US inflation print today. But we suspect the 1.0730 area holds, and ending the day at 1.0830/50 would tell us something about declining appetite for dollars."
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