As is happening in France with the extremes on the left and right of the political spectrum taking a larger proportion of votes in the parliamentary elections, this weekend saw a similar pattern in two regional elections in Germany yesterday. AfD is on course to win 32.8% in the state of Thuringia and marks the first win for a far-right party since World War II. The CDU/CSU was a second with 23.6% of the vote. It was the other way around in Saxony with the AfD falling short with 30.6% of the vote while the CDU/CSU won a slightly larger share with 31.9%. The SPD did appallingly bad winning just 6.1% in Thuringia, the worst result in postwar Germany while both the Greens and the FDP both fell below the 5% threshold required in order to be represented in the state parliament, MUFG FX analysts note.
A political gridlock comes to Germany
“The evidence of disaffection was highlighted by the surge in popularity on the left as well with a new far-left party BSW winning 15.8% of the vote in Thuringia and 11.8% in Saxony. Given the performance of the two extreme parties it is clear that Germany is heading slowly toward the very same political outcome as in France – political gridlock. AfD will not be in a position to govern in Thuringia given all other parties have stated they would not enter a coalition with AfD which mean the CDU/CSU would be required to consider governing with other parties including the far-left party BSW. BSW are more supportive of Russia and are calling for a change in policy on Ukraine.”
“The next general election is scheduled for autumn 2025 and based on these results it seems difficult to see a strong government emerging. The political backdrop in the euro-zone has never been as bad since the single currency emerged. Weak GDP growth in Germany for a sustained period is at the heart of voter anger. Five of the last ten quarters for GDP growth has seen a contraction. Incredibly, Germany’s economy is a mere 0.2% larger than in Q4 2019 ahead of the covid pandemic. In the US, real GDP is 9.4% larger over the same period.”
“We will be releasing our monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook this afternoon and we will be showing a weaker US dollar forecast profile but the mixed global economic backdrop – commodity prices are down 10% since May, the elevated geopolitical risks and the complete political gridlock at the heart of the euro-zone all point to reasons to remain cautious over the extent to which the dollar will weaken going forward.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold nears $3,400; fresh record highs and counting amid USD sell-off
Gold price closes in on $3,400 as the record rally regains strength on Easter Monday. Concerns over US-China trade war escalation and the Fed’s independence smash the US Dollar to three-year troughs. RSI stays overbought on the daily chart, with thin volumes likely to exaggerate moves in Gold price.
EUR/USD extends rally toward 1.1600 as US Dollar keeps falling
EUR/USD trades roughly 1.5% higher so far this Monday as the relentless US Dollar selling drives it toward the 1.1600 threshold - the highest level since November 2021. Growing concerns over a US economic recession and the Federal Reserve’s autonomy continue to exert downward pressure on the USD.
GBP/USD surges past 1.3400 on intense US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD continues its winning streak, recapturing 1.3400 in European trading on Monday. The extended US Dollar weakness, amid US-Sino trade war-led recession fears and heightened threat to the Fed's independence, continue to underpin the pair. Thin trading is set to extend.
How to make sense of crypto recovery – Is it a buy or fakeout
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and XRP, the top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, extend their last week’s recovery on Monday, even as trader sentiment is hurt by the US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and announcements.
Five fundamentals for the week: Traders confront the trade war, important surveys, key Fed speech Premium
Will the US strike a trade deal with Japan? That would be positive progress. However, recent developments are not that positive, and there's only one certainty: headlines will dominate markets. Fresh US economic data is also of interest.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.