EUR/JPY surges to near 164.50 following BoJ Summary of Opinions

EUR/JPY strengthened as the BoJ's Summary of Opinions highlighted divisions among policymakers over the timing of future interest rate hikes.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a parliamentary leadership vote today, following the loss of ruling LDP lower house majority.
Deutsche Bank analysts have warned that higher US tariffs could negatively affect the Eurozone’s export sector.

EUR/JPY rises to near 164.50 during the Asian trading session on Monday, driven by a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). This movement follows the release of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) October Summary of Opinions, which highlighted divisions among policymakers regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes.

Some BoJ members raised concerns about global economic uncertainties and the increasing market volatility, particularly in relation to the JPY's depreciation. Nevertheless, the central bank has indicated that it may raise its benchmark policy rate to 1% by the latter half of the 2025 fiscal year.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a parliamentary leadership vote today, after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its lower house majority, which it had held since 2012. Ishiba may now seek to form a new government with support from minor parties, according to The Associated Press.

In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz appointed a new finance minister following the dismissal of the previous one, a move that effectively dissolves the ruling coalition. This decision has sparked calls from opposition parties and business leaders for new elections to restore stability amid the growing political uncertainty.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned that higher tariffs from the US could put pressure on the Eurozone’s export sector, potentially affecting economic growth and the Euro. They highlighted the high level of uncertainty surrounding various factors, including the precise impact of the US tariffs, the timing of their implementation, and how Europe will respond.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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