- EUR/JPY is testing the top of a multi-week range and could be about to reverse and fall.
- Although price action has not yet reversed, the MACD is diverging bearishly with price.
EUR/JPY tests the top of a nine-and-a-half-week range at around 163.50 as it continues unfolding its short-term sideways trend.
EUR/JPY 4-hour Chart
Given the principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation of this sideways mode. If so, then the next move for EUR/JPY will probably be a decline back down towards the range floor in the 154s.
There are no reversal signs from the actual price yet, however, and it is too early to say with any confidence if the pair will break lower. A move below 161.91 (October 8 low) would be required to supply the additional bearish confirmation. For stronger confirmation price must break below the trendline for the up leg at around 161.70 (dotted black line on chart). The next downside target for EUR/JPY would be at about 158.32 – the October 1 as well as September 30 lows.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is diverging bearishly with price (red dotted lines on chart). Whilst price is making higher highs, MACD is declining. This is further evidence a downside move could be about to unfold.
On the other hand, a decisive break above the range highs would indicate a breakout of the range and the evolution of a new short-term uptrend. A decisive move would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green candlestick which cleared the range high and closed near its high, or three green candles in a row breaking above the top of the range.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.