- EUR/GBP remains in the negative territory after the release of the economic data from both economies.
- The UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Aug) eased to 4.0%, down from July’s 4.1% reading.
- The annual inflation in France increased by 1.1%, while in Spain, it was recorded at 1.5% in September.
EUR/GBP continues to lose its ground for the third successive day, trading around 0.8350 during the European session on Tuesday. The EUR/GBP cross remains subdued following the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom (UK).
The UK ILO Unemployment Rate fell to 4.0% in the three months leading up to August, down from 4.1% in July and below the market forecast of 4.1%. Employment Change for August saw a notable increase of 373,000, up from 265,000 in July. Meanwhile, Average Earnings excluding Bonuses grew by 4.9% year-on-year for the same period, meeting expectations but slightly below the 5.1% growth registered in July.
Traders will likely focus on a series of key economic data from the United Kingdom, set to be released on Wednesday, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Retail Price Index. These data releases could influence the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook. However, BoE officials have indicated that they may resume rate cuts at the upcoming meeting in November.
In the Eurozone, France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 1.2% month-over-month in September, following a 0.5% increase in August. This marks the sharpest monthly decline in prices since the series began in 1990. Year-on-year, inflation rose by 1.1%, down from 1.8% in August, primarily driven by significant drops in energy prices and a slowdown in service costs.
In Spain, annual inflation stood at 1.5% in September, the lowest level since March 2021, down from 2.3% in the previous month. Monthly inflation decreased by 0.6% in September, as expected, while annual core inflation also fell by 2.4%.
According to the October 2024 Bank Lending Survey (BLS), euro area banks noted the first negative impact of the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decisions on their net interest margins since the end of 2022. Meanwhile, the effects on volumes of interest-bearing assets and liabilities continued to be negative.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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