EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Reaction extends after extreme bear move

EUR/GBP continues its counter-trend reaction after its accelerated decline during the month of August took it temporarily outside the bounds of its falling channel (shaded circle). This breakout is often a sign of exhaustion of the downtrend, however, it is a little too soon to tell. 

EUR/GBP has now bottomed out and is evolving a sideways rangebound market mode. 

EUR/GBP 4-hour Chart 

So far the recovery has been quite shallow and it is currently capped by resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

EUR/GBP has not been able to break decisively above the SMA or the line of highs at 0.8435 suggesting a reversal remains elusive. 

The pair will probably continue sideways until it reaches resistance from the upper channel line at roughly 0.8450. 

The medium-term trend remains bearish, however, suggesting there is still a chance of an extension lower, although the channel exhaustion break lowers the odds. 

That said, a break below 0.8406 (September 3 low) would pave the way for further weakness to a downside target at 0.8385 (July 17 lows). 

In order to reverse the short-term trend, bulls would have to decisively break above the 50 SMA. A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long green candle that closed near its high or three green candles in a row that closed above the SMA. 

The long-term trend (weekly chart) is still bearish whilst the medium-term trend is bullish.