- EUR/GBP gains momentum to near 0.8445 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- UK CPI inflation eases to 2.5% YoY in December vs. 2.7% expected.
- ECB’s Rehn said it makes sense to continue rate cuts.
The EUR/GBP cross extends the rally to around 0.8445 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the shared currency after the cooler-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December. Later on Wednesday, the Eurozone Industrial Production will be released. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos will deliver a speech on the same day.
Data released by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics on Wednesday showed that the country’s headline CPI rose 2.5% YoY in December, compared to 2.6% in November. This reading came in softer than the 2.7% expected. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 3.2% YoY in December versus 3.5% prior, below the market consensus of 3.4%. Meanwhile, the monthly UK CPI inflation increased to 0.3% in December from 0.1% in November. Markets expected a 0.4% print.
The Pound Sterling attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the downbeat UK CPI inflation data. Additionally, the concerns about the UK's fiscal sustainability and rising bond yields might continue to undermine the GBP. Analysts expect higher borrowing costs may force the government to rein in spending or raise taxes to meet its fiscal rules, potentially weighing on the UK's future growth.
On the Euro front, the ECB delivered rate cuts four times last year, and traders expect three or four moves in 2025 due to the Eurozone's weak economic outlook. This, in turn, could exert some downward pressure on the Euro against the GBP. The ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn on Monday said, “Against the backdrop of disinflation being on track and the growth outlook having weakened it makes sense to continue rate cuts.”
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Further gains need more conviction
AUD/USD reversed two-daily pullbacks in a row on Tuesday, staging a decent comeback from Monday’s troughs near 0.6220 to the boundaries of the 0.6300 hurdle propped up by the RBA hawkish hold and firm data from Chinese business activity.
EUR/USD remains offered below 1.0800 ahead of “Liberation Day”
EUR/USD came under extra downside pressure on Tuesday, returning to the sub-1.0800 region on the back of tepid gains in the US Dollar and rising caution prior to Trump’s announcements on Wednesday.
Gold nears $3,100 as fears receded
Gold is easing from its fresh record high near $3,150 but remains well supported above the $3,100 mark. A generalised pullback in US yields is underpinning the yellow metal, as traders stay on the sidelines awaiting clarity on upcoming US tariff announcements.
US Government to conclude BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA reserves audit next Saturday
Bitcoin price rose 3% on Tuesday, as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet and Tether all announced fresh BTC purchase. However, BTC price is likely to remain volatile ahead of the anticipated disclosure of U.S. government crypto holdings, which could fuel speculation in the coming days.
Is the US economy headed for a recession?
Leading economists say a recession is more likely than originally expected. With new tariffs set to be launched on April 2, investors and economists are growing more concerned about an economic slowdown or recession.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.