- EUR/GBP pinned into a right midrange after November's hard selloff.
- The midweek sees a doubleheader from the BoE and the ECB.
- Dual rate holds to see markets focusing on press statements, investors to weigh degrees of hawkishness.
The EUR/GBP pair is testing the low end but still trapped firmly within near-term consolidation as the Euro (EUR) struggles to find meaningful momentum against the Pound Sterling in either direction.
The EUR/GBP is down a tenth of a percent in Monday action after briefly setting a thirteen-week low of 0.8549 earlier in the day.
Monday is a thin start to the trading week, but Tuesday will kick things off with an update to UK labor figures. UK Claimant Count Change in November is expected to show a slight increase from 17.8K to 20.3K, with the ILO 3-month Unemployment Rate for the quarter into October expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
Markets gearing up for a full docket of central bank data in the back half of the week
Wednesday will see mid-tier Industrial Production data from both the UK and the Eurozone, before giving way to Thursday's central bank double feature with both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) delivering their final interest rate calls of 2023.
Both central banks are expected to hold flat with the BoE sticking to 5.25% and the ECB's Main Refinancing Operations Rate firmly planted at 4.5%.
With the back half of the week roped off for central bank releases, flat forecasts will see markets chewing through respective outlook releases to weigh which bank is more hawkish.
EUR/GBP Technical Outlook
With the EUR/GBP steeply off November's high of 0.8765, down almost two and a half percent from peak-to-trough over the last five weeks, the pair is firmly pinned into the floorboards and testing into lows last seen in early September.
Near-term consolidation has the pair pinned just south of the 0.8580 level, with bullish tests getting consistently rejected but bearish momentum constrained above 0.8560.
The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is drifting down into the 0.8660 region, but with recent price action deflating the Euro against the Pound Sterling, the long-term moving average still remains well above current bids, putting a firm ceiling on long-term potential moves, but seeing little interaction with the pair in the near-term.
EUR/GBP Daily Chart
EUR/GBP Technical Levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold price conquers $3,100 for the first time ever on tariff war fears
The record rally in Gold price remains unabated as buyers conquer the $3,100 threshold for the time on record. Heightening fears of a potential global trade war and stagflation in the United States intensify safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.
USD/JPY extends the slide below 149.00 as trade war fears ramp up risk aversion
USD/JPY extends losses below 149.00 in Monday's Asian trading. Hawkish BoJ expectations and heightening risk-off mood amid escalating tensions underpin the safe-haven Japnese Yen. Moreover, fears of stagflation in the US keep the US Dollar undermined, adding to the pair's downslide.
AUD/USD turns lower below 0.6300 as risk-off flows intensify
AUD/USD has ereased earlier gains to edge lower below 0.6300 in the Asian session on Monday. Trump's tariff concerns outweigh mixed Chinese NBS March PMI data, Australia's hot private inflation data and broad US Dollar weakness, exerting downward pressure on the pair as risk-aversion intensifies.
Week ahead: US NFP and Eurozone CPI awaited as tariff war heats up, RBA meets
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could spur more chaos. US jobs report might show DOGE impact on labour market. Eurozone inflation will be vital for ECB bets as April cut uncertain. RBA to likely hold rates; Canadian jobs, BoJ Tankan survey also on tap.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.