The US presidential debate did not generate any shockwave for EUR/USD, but gave enough short-term support to the pair to send it back to 1.105 after a soft session yesterday, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD may be back to 1.110
“The next few days will help shape the FX reaction to the debate more clearly, but we have been generally positive on EUR/USD staying supported into the US election and the rising perceived probability of Harris winning is endorsing this view.”
“Looking at this week, EUR/USD will still be entirely driven by US events today as US CPI is released and markets may place more US election trades on, but tomorrow will all be about the ECB meeting. A 25bp rate cut is nearly guaranteed, but as discussed in our ECB Cheat Sheet, there is room for EUR/USD to trade higher on the back of a hawkish repricing in front-end EUR rates.”
“By the end of the week, the net effect of the presidential debate, US CPI, and the ECB announcement could have sent EUR/USD back to 1.110 in our view.”
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