The Czech National Bank (CNB) will meet today to make its latest monetary policy decision. Economists at ING analyze Koruna’s outlook as EUR/CZK is gradually sliding down.
Last discussion before rate cuts
We believe it will be the last meeting before CNB begins to discuss the real possibility of rate cuts.
Our forecast remains unchanged – a first 25bps rate cut in November alongside a new central bank forecast. The main question today will therefore be whether the governor will indicate when to expect the first rate cut or leave no clues.
While it is clear that a rate cut is around the corner in the Czech Republic, we expect the board to adopt a cautious approach, which should support the Koruna and erase losses after the sell-off triggered by the central bank's steps in Poland in early September. Thus, we expect EUR/CZK to end today safely below 24.40.
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