This Thursday, the Swiss National Bank will likely be cutting rates a few hours before the ECB, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
SNB has little room for manouevre
“We are a little surprised to see the market pricing 36bp for the SNB decision. We think a 25bp cut is far more likely given that, with the Swiss policy rate already at 1.00%, the SNB has far less room for conventional policy easing. Indeed, there is a case that the SNB does not take rates below 0.50% in this cycle – even though market pricing is toying with the idea of negative rates next year.”
“Having stayed surprisingly bid during French political stress last week, EUR/CHF is now turning a little lower. Here we favour a grind lower towards this year's spike lows near 0.9200/9210 as it becomes apparent the SNB will not be able to keep pace with ECB easing.”
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